mRNA vaccine risk-benefit analysis for healthy Israelis under 50
We recently learnt there were zero deaths from COVID19 for this cohort during 2020. Did the mRNA vaccine cause any deaths?
Israel had one of the most aggressive vaccine rollouts. Israel had already administered the 4th vaccine dose by end of 2021.
As I sometimes mention on Twitter, that actually works out to one dose per financial quarter :-)
But we learnt recently that the total number of deaths due to COVID19 in 2020 for healthy Israelis under 50 (i.e. no pre-existing conditions) was actually zero.
By the way, please read this thread too:
From what I have seen till now, KelleyKga is very diligent and usually very careful about their analysis. The claim here is that the Israel MOH sampled 27 out of 356 deaths, and found all of them had at least one significant comorbidity.
Having said that, you can read the rest of the thread and see that the responses have not disproved the overall claim either1.
But let us suppose the number is not actually zero, and someone eventually digs up a few people under-50 who were healthy and also died from COVID19.
How many deaths did the vaccine cause?
What I am going to do first is to provide the list of VAERS death reports from Israel for all ages (there are 106 in total).
Note: You must click on the “URL” link in the first column to be able to read the full VAERS report on the MedAlerts website. The data in the table is mostly just information I extracted from the writeups, so you need to read the VAERS report to get the full picture.
Most of the reports do not include the AGE_YRS field, so I used my old Python script to parse the age value from the writeup.
So you can filter the DERIVED_AGE < 51 and see a list of reports for people 50 and under.
There are 18 such reports.
You can go through the list of 18 VAERS reports and verify for yourself that many of them did not have any comorbidities.
Here is an example:
Even a handful of such deaths, if shown to be in completely healthy people, would reverse the risk-benefit ratio against vaccinating healthy people under-50.
Would the Israeli government be willing to release anonymized data about health status for all these post-vaccine deaths, similar to what the Qatar study did?
Also, is the Israeli MOH really so resource constrained that they cannot be bothered to do the same check on the full dataset? There were only 356 entries.