How much does GAVI owe Philippines for vaccine injuries?

Analyzing the COVAX No Fault Compensation Programme

Summary:

• GAVI announced a “COVAX No Fault Compensation Programme” in mid-2021 to counter vaccine hesitancy due to fear of injuries. The compensation was based on some preconditions:

  • the vaccine should have been distributed via a COVAX facility

  • only applies to the 92 lower income countries which do not have a good vaccine injury compensation system

• All Janssen vaccines used by Philippines were procured via the COVAX facility, and it is one of the 92 lower income countries

• There are nearly 450 death reports after Janssen vaccination, and many hundreds of serious adverse events

• The total compensation based on GAVI’s own calculations could have exceeded $50 million if all these serious adverse events were caused by the vaccine

• I am not able to find any report online discussing the payouts associated with this compensation program. Does this mean GAVI thinks there were no serious injuries from the vaccines distributed via the COVAX facility?

When the global rollout of COVID19 vaccines started, GAVI announced something called a “COVAX No Fault Compensation Programme”.

This is from their own article (emphasis mine):

Indemnity and liability was one of the thorniest problems COVAX had to solve to successfully roll out COVID-19 vaccines in lower-income countries. The solution is a world first, which could offer a model for future pandemics.

Source (Archive)

I do agree that liability is one of the thorniest problems to solve when it comes to vaccines.

Whatever systems the medical community established over a long period of time to protect vaccine manufacturers (so people can have uninterrupted supply of vaccines) have now overcompensated quite severely, to the point where the vaccine manufacturers have started treating liability like a joke.

I will take the example of the “COVAX No Fault Compensation Programme“ and explain why I believe that.

Who is eligible for this program?

First, let us look at who is eligible for this no-fault compensation program.

The Program provides fair, no-fault, lump sum compensation to any individual in the 92 lower-income economies covered by the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) who suffers a serious adverse event from any vaccine procured or distributed through the COVAX Facility.

Source

So the first thing you notice is that the vaccine has to be procured or distributed through the “COVAX facility”

What is the COVAX facility?

Here is how it is explained on the GAVI website:

Link

Note that Philippines was one of the 92 lower income economies covered by the no-fault compensation scheme.

Link

All Janssen vaccine doses used by Philippines came from the COVAX facility

One of the interesting things about Philippines is that its entire supply of Janssen vaccines came through the COVAX facility.

For example, compare Pfizer and Janssen from this Wikipedia page:

Link

As you can see, 100% of the Janssen vaccine doses in Philippines came from the COVAX facility.

How many deaths were reported due to the Janssen vaccine in Philippines?

If you go to the foreign serious VAERS reports search demo, you can filter for OUTCOME = Died and Country = Philippines.

Then filter for Vaccine Type = Janssen

There are about 450 deaths.

This is the formula used by the no-fault compensation scheme.

GDP per capita of the AMC-eligible economyin which the claimant resides x 12 x a harm factor ranging from 1.5 to 0.1 dependent on the nature of the injury and level of impairment, as evaluated based upon the most recently published edition of the American Medical Association’s (AMA) Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment.

Source

The GDP per capita of Philippines is about $3500.

Given that we are talking about deaths, it is fair to say that the harm factor should be the maximum permissible value, which is 1.5

This amounts to 3500 x 12 x 1.5 = $63000 per death

You can multiply this by the number of deaths which were attributed to the vaccine, and you will get the total amount to be paid.

If all 449 deaths were due to the vaccines, this amount would exceed $28 million.

Other serious adverse events

Suppose we set the harm factor to be 1.25 for disability and life threatening conditions, and 1 for hospitalization.

This would amount to 3500 x 1.25 x 12 = $52500 per disability or life threatening condition.

Combined, there were 46 reports with either a disability or a life threatening condition. If all of them were due to the vaccine, that would amount to $2.5 million.

The compensation would amount to 3500 x 1 x 12 = $42000 per hospitalization

There were 812 hospitalizations. If all of them were due to the vaccine, that would amount to a total of nearly $35 million.

Combining all these adverse events, the total payout¹ across all serious adverse reactions due to the Janssen vaccine in Philippines could be in excess of $50 million.

Where is the payout report?

The reason I think vaccine manufacturers treat liability as a joke, is because I could not find the compensation payout report online.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Is GAVI claiming that there wasn’t a single vaccine injury due to the COVAX facility?

If you have seen the payout report online, please do provide the link in the comments.

1. Sometimes the same report will have multiple types of serious adverse events, so it will not be a simple addition