A better metric for evaluating vaccine safety

We should be calculating "Mean Expected years of life lost" when compared to baseline life expectancy instead of raw excess deaths

A lot of articles have been written about excess deaths (which is certainly an important and useful metric), but I think it sometimes creates more confusion because the overall excess deaths are often not actually much worse than the baseline year of 2020.

I really doubt the vaccines are so bad that they will show up in excess deaths (but I may be wrong about this).

On top of that, using excess deaths will also set a very low bar for future vaccine rollouts. Vaccines are NOT supposed to be that dangerous!

Link to tweet

I wrote this after seeing this article by Ron Unz which actually makes a good point - there doesn’t really seem to be a major difference in total number of deaths caused by specific conditions. For now I am going to suppose the underlying data is actually accurate.

The life expectancy in the US for 2019 was 78.8 years.

We will round it down to 78 to give the benefit of the doubt to the vaccine.

If a 80 year old dies after getting the vaccine, the expected years of life lost is zero.

If a 20 year old dies after getting the vaccine, the expected years of life lost is 58.

Now we don’t know for sure if the vaccine caused the death of the 20 year old (which is the main argument of the vaccine supporters).

The Mean Expected Years of Life Lost (MEYLL) simply takes the average of all the numbers for all the deaths recorded in a particular country.

But we should be able to agree that the MEYLL should not be going up after a vaccination rollout, no matter what caused the actual death.

Said another way, if the MEYLL after vaccination goes up in 2021 compared to 2020, and then again in 2022 compared to 2021, the vaccination program should be considered a failure.

Similar to raw excess deaths, the other benefit of this metric is that it will not depend on how diligently a country records “with vs of” COVID19 deaths vs vaccine injury deaths etc. I would expect it to be equally good (or equally bad) across all the three years.

An example

Let us make up some numbers to fit the excess deaths already observed in the Ron Unz article I cited.

Suppose the average age of people who died from a heart attack was 60 in 2020.

For simplifying the calculation, suppose 350K were of age 65, and another 350K were age 55 for year 2020 (this way, the average ends up as 60).

MEYLL for 2020 = ((78 - 65) x 350K + (78 - 55) x 350K)/700K = 18

You can see that because we are using the average age anyway, we can just get the same result by subtracting the average age from 78 (i.e. 78 - 60 = 18)

Now suppose the average age of people who died from a heart attack went down to 55 in 2021 and then to 50 in 2022 (in fact, I would imagine this is the main concern of the vaccine skeptics).

So MEYLL for 2021 = (78 - 55) = 23

and MEYLL for 2022 = (78 - 50) = 28

These are just made up numbers, but this would actually be an indication of vaccine failure.

And even if the actual reason for these deaths are COVID19 induced (as we are often told), that means we have somehow done worse in 2021/2022 than in 2020 when the virus was supposed to be more lethal.

And if you somehow believe every single younger person who died was not vaccinated, this means the Doctors somehow got worse at treating COVID19 in 2021 and 2022 compared to 2020 when they knew even less about the virus.

Where can I get the raw data?

I am not sure where to get this data for each country.

I need the number of deaths broken down by age (or at least a small age-group band) for the years 2020 through 2022, and it has to be accurate and up-to-date.

If you know the answer, please leave a comment below. If someone has already done this analysis, please let me know and I will add the link to this article.

Also, if you see any concerns with using this metric itself, do let me know in the comments.